Leeds vs Newcastle
Premier League, England · 2026-09-14 · 21:00 CET
DWDLD
DLWLLThe score model made a Newcastle win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leeds 1.37 – 1.50 Newcastle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 33.5% | 41.7% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Newcastle win | 39.3% | 30.6% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 54.0% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 33.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 58.4% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 37.7% | -6.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leeds 29.3 / Newcastle 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leeds vs Newcastle in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.