Manchester Utd vs Manchester City
Premier League, England · 2026-09-13 · 17:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Manchester City win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Manchester Utd 1.22 – 1.81 Manchester City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd win | 24.8% | 31.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Manchester City win | 50.0% | 43.5% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 61.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 41.3% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 64.7% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 42.0% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Manchester Utd 47.4 / Manchester City 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Manchester Utd vs Manchester City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.