Manchester Utd vs Manchester City
Premier League, England · 2026-09-13 · 17:30 CET
WWLWD
DLWWWThe score model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.8% vs 57.0% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Manchester Utd 1.23 – 1.80 Manchester City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd win | 25.1% | 31.1% | -6.0% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.8% | +0.2% |
| Manchester City win | 49.9% | 44.1% | +5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 62.8% | -4.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 42.3% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 64.9% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 43.0% | -10.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Manchester Utd 48 / Manchester City 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.