Tottenham vs Everton
Premier League, England · 2026-09-12 · 18:30 CET
LWLLD
LLWDDThe score model makes a Tottenham win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Everton win — 33.2% vs 25.4% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tottenham 1.33 – 1.23 Everton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 37.9% | 47.7% | -9.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.9% | +2.0% |
| Everton win | 33.2% | 25.4% | +7.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 49.7% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 28.9% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 53.3% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 33.7% | -3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tottenham 48 / Everton 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.