Liverpool vs Fulham
Premier League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WDWLW
LDDLWThe score model made a Liverpool win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liverpool 2.05 – 1.09 Fulham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 58.7% | 62.4% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 20.7% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Fulham win | 18.7% | 17.0% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 65.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 44.8% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 60.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 44.4% | -8.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liverpool 47.5 / Fulham 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Liverpool vs Fulham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.