Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Premier League, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLDWL
LWLWLThe score model made a Crystal Palace win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crystal Palace 2.07 – 0.99 Ipswich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 61.3% | 50.4% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 25.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Ipswich win | 16.5% | 24.2% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 55.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 34.5% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 56.6% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 37.0% | +7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crystal Palace 47.5 / Ipswich 14.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Crystal Palace vs Ipswich in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.