West Brom vs QPR
Championship, England · 2026-09-12 · 13:30 CET
DLLWW
DDDWLThe score model made a West Brom win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Brom 1.49 – 0.97 QPR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 48.4% | 45.1% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 28.0% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| QPR win | 23.8% | 26.9% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 52.1% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 31.6% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 56.3% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 35.1% | -2.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: West Brom 58.5 / QPR 58.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open West Brom vs QPR in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.