Swansea vs Burnley
Championship, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWWWL
LDWDLThe score model made a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swansea 0.97 – 1.25 Burnley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 27.8% | 45.4% | -17.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.4% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Burnley win | 41.8% | 27.1% | +14.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 50.5% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 30.2% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 55.1% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 34.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swansea 58.5 / Burnley 23.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.