Southampton vs Bristol City
Championship, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLWWD
LWDLLThe score model made a Southampton win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southampton 2.03 – 1.10 Bristol City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 58.1% | 56.3% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.1% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Bristol City win | 19.4% | 20.6% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | 59.6% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% | 38.8% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 58.6% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 40.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southampton 42.1 / Bristol City 57.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Southampton vs Bristol City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.