Middlesbrough vs Norwich
Championship, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 4:3 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.71 – 1.15 Norwich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 49.6% | 50.6% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 24.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Norwich win | 24.9% | 24.9% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 59.7% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 39.0% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 61.4% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 40.6% | -2.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Middlesbrough 59.1 / Norwich 58.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.