Blackburn vs Millwall
Championship, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WDWWL
DDWLDThe score model made a Millwall win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Blackburn 1.00 – 1.06 Millwall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 32.3% | 35.8% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.2% | 28.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Millwall win | 35.6% | 35.5% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 49.1% | -15.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 29.1% | -13.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.1% | 55.3% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 33.5% | -13.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Blackburn 59.2 / Millwall 59.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Blackburn vs Millwall in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.