Charlton vs QPR
Championship, England · 2026-09-09 · 21:00 CET
DDLDD
DDDDWThe score model made a Charlton win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Charlton 1.23 – 1.07 QPR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 39.1% | 28.0% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.5% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| QPR win | 30.9% | 43.6% | -12.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 47.5% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 27.4% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 53.2% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 32.6% | -6.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Charlton 34.1 / QPR 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.