Cardiff vs Stoke
Championship, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
DLWLW
DWWWLThe score model made a Cardiff win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cardiff 1.24 – 1.21 Stoke.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 36.2% | 46.0% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 26.0% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Stoke win | 34.8% | 28.0% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 57.9% | -13.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 37.1% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 60.7% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 39.7% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cardiff 29.4 / Stoke 57.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.