Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd
Championship, England · 2026-09-08 · 20:45 CET
LWDWW
LWLLWThe score model made a Sheffield Utd win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Blackburn 1.11 – 1.16 Sheffield Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 33.7% | 31.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.8% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Sheffield Utd win | 36.0% | 40.6% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 50.8% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 30.3% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 56.1% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 34.5% | -8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Blackburn 58.7 / Sheffield Utd 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.