West Brom vs Watford
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WDLLW
WLLLLThe score model made a West Brom win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Brom 1.42 – 0.94 Watford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 47.2% | 51.8% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Watford win | 24.3% | 22.1% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 50.5% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 30.3% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 53.4% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 34.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: West Brom 57.3 / Watford 57.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.