West Brom vs Watford
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLWWL
LLWDDThe score model makes a West Brom win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.5% vs 72.7% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Brom 1.42 – 0.95 Watford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 47.1% | 46.2% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.9% | +0.4% |
| Watford win | 24.6% | 25.9% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 45.7% | -3.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 27.3% | -5.8% |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 49.9% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 31.6% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: West Brom 57 / Watford 57.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.