Swansea vs Wrexham
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
DWWDW
LDDDLThe score model makes a Swansea win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Swansea win — 43.7% vs 37.3% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swansea 1.55 – 1.25 Wrexham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 43.7% | 37.3% | +6.3% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.3% | -2.0% |
| Wrexham win | 30.1% | 34.4% | -4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 47.5% | +5.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 27.4% | +3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 53.2% | +3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 31.7% | +4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swansea 57.1 / Wrexham 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.