Sheffield Utd vs Norwich
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LWLLW
WWLLLThe score model made a Sheffield Utd win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.61 – 1.21 Norwich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd win | 45.8% | 35.9% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Norwich win | 28.1% | 36.6% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 54.3% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 33.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 58.5% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 36.6% | +0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sheffield Utd 50.2 / Norwich 57.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.