QPR vs Middlesbrough
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LDDDD
WDDWWThe score model made a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: QPR 1.23 – 1.52 Middlesbrough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 29.9% | 30.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Middlesbrough win | 43.3% | 43.2% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 55.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 35.0% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 58.9% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 37.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: QPR 57.3 / Middlesbrough 58.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.