Preston vs Blackburn
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
WLLLL
WLDWLThe score model makes a Preston win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 81.8% vs 72.8% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Preston 1.17 – 1.04 Blackburn.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 38.2% | 36.2% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.9% | +1.6% |
| Blackburn win | 31.3% | 34.9% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 45.5% | -7.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 27.2% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 51.4% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 31.4% | -5.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Preston 57.1 / Blackburn 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.