Portsmouth vs Cardiff
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WDLWL
DLDDDThe score model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Portsmouth win — 46.2% vs 36.9% implied (+9.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.56 – 1.15 Cardiff.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 46.2% | 36.9% | +9.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 28.6% | -2.2% |
| Cardiff win | 27.3% | 34.5% | -7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 47.6% | +3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 29.0% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 53.2% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 33.0% | +5.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portsmouth 47.5 / Cardiff 27.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.