Burnley vs Bristol City
Championship, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WWDLL
LWLDWThe score model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 56.4% vs 47.8% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burnley 1.65 – 0.76 Bristol City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 58.2% | 50.8% | +7.3% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0% |
| Bristol City win | 16.3% | 23.7% | -7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 50.0% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 29.2% | -6.8% |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | 52.2% | -8.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 33.7% | +4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burnley 20.7 / Bristol City 57.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.