West Brom vs Charlton
Championship, England · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
DLWWL
WLWWWThe score model makes a West Brom win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 65.4% vs 54.7% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Brom 1.25 – 0.83 Charlton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 45.5% | 54.2% | -8.6% |
| Draw | 30.6% | 26.2% | +4.4% |
| Charlton win | 23.9% | 19.6% | +4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.6% | 45.3% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 25.5% | -9.7% |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 47.2% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 31.0% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: West Brom 57 / Charlton 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.