Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Championship, England · 2026-09-02 · 21:00 CET
DLDWD
WDDWWThe score model made a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burnley 1.50 – 0.91 Middlesbrough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 50.4% | 33.0% | +17.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.3% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Middlesbrough win | 22.1% | 40.8% | -18.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 58.7% | -15.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 38.0% | -15.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 62.1% | -15.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 39.7% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burnley 20.5 / Middlesbrough 58.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.