Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Championship, England · 2026-09-02 · 21:00 CET
WWDLL
DLWLWThe score model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Burnley win — 50.1% vs 37.3% implied (+12.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burnley 1.49 – 0.91 Middlesbrough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 50.1% | 37.3% | +12.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.2% | +0.3% |
| Middlesbrough win | 22.3% | 35.5% | -13.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 50.0% | -6.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 30.8% | -8.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 54.4% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 34.8% | +1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burnley 20.7 / Middlesbrough 58.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.