Stoke vs Norwich
Championship, England · 2026-09-01 · 21:00 CET
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DLLLWThe score model makes a Norwich win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.4% vs 69.5% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stoke 1.23 – 1.38 Norwich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 32.7% | 32.6% | +0.1% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.5% | +0.1% |
| Norwich win | 39.6% | 39.9% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 50.9% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 30.5% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 55.6% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 35.0% | -1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stoke 57.1 / Norwich 57 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.