Preston vs Bristol City
Championship, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
LLDLL
LLWDLThe score model made a Preston win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Preston 1.24 – 1.22 Bristol City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 36.1% | 33.0% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 28.2% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Bristol City win | 35.1% | 38.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 49.7% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 29.4% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 55.4% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 33.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Preston 56.8 / Bristol City 56.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.