Preston vs Bristol City
Championship, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
WLLLL
LWLDWThe score model makes a Preston win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.8% vs 70.7% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Preston 1.23 – 1.21 Bristol City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 36.1% | 37.3% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 28.3% | +0.4% |
| Bristol City win | 35.1% | 34.4% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 49.5% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 29.3% | -6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 55.3% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 33.9% | -2.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Preston 57.1 / Bristol City 57.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.