Birmingham vs Southampton
Championship, England · 2026-09-01 · 21:00 CET
WDDDW
WDLWWThe score model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Southampton win — 44.3% vs 33.1% implied (+11.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Birmingham 1.27 – 1.59 Southampton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 29.8% | 38.9% | -9.1% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.0% | -2.2% |
| Southampton win | 44.3% | 33.1% | +11.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 50.7% | +3.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 30.7% | +1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 56.2% | +1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 34.8% | +7.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Birmingham 42.4 / Southampton 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.