Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-13 · 14:15 CET
LWDLL
DDDLWThe score model made a Slavia Sofia win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.57 – 0.98 Spartak Varna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia win | 51.0% | 45.8% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 28.9% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Spartak Varna win | 23.4% | 25.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 43.1% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 23.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 48.6% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 30.2% | +3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Sofia 45.6 / Spartak Varna 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.