Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-14 · 19:30 CET
DDWWW
DLLLLThe score model made a Ludogorets win the most likely outcome at 83%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ludogorets 2.64 – 0.49 Septemvri Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets win | 82.9% | 75.5% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 12.4% | 16.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Septemvri Sofia win | 4.7% | 8.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 58.4% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 37.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.3% | 42.5% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 40.4% | -6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ludogorets 45 / Septemvri Sofia 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.