CSKA Sofia vs Arda
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-12 · 20:15 CET
DWWDW
WLLDLThe score model made a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.39 – 0.81 Arda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia win | 50.7% | 52.3% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Arda win | 21.6% | 19.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | 46.4% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 26.6% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 41.8% | 48.5% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 31.8% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Sofia 44 / Arda 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CSKA Sofia vs Arda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.