Lok. Sofia vs Ludogorets
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-06 · 20:15 CET
LDLWD
WDDWWThe score model made a Ludogorets win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Sofia 0.77 – 2.11 Ludogorets.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Sofia win | 12.2% | 15.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.5% | 22.7% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Ludogorets win | 68.3% | 62.0% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 51.7% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 30.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 49.3% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 36.2% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Sofia 44.1 / Ludogorets 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.