Lok. Plovdiv vs Cherno More
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-06 · 18:00 CET
LWLDD
LLDDLThe score model made a Cherno More win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Plovdiv 1.00 – 1.05 Cherno More.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Plovdiv win | 33.0% | 35.0% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.9% | 31.5% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Cherno More win | 36.0% | 33.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.7% | 39.2% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.2% | 20.2% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.4% | 47.2% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 27.3% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Plovdiv 44.3 / Cherno More 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.