Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-05 · 20:15 CET
WWWWD
LWLWWThe score model made a Levski Sofia win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.80 – 0.86 CSKA 1948 Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia win | 59.4% | 61.9% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 17.3% | 13.7% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 45.5% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 25.4% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 43.2% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 31.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levski Sofia 44.7 / CSKA 1948 Sofia 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.