Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-04 · 18:00 CET
WDLLL
WLWDDThe score model made a Septemvri Sofia win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 1.13 – 1.05 Botev Vratsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia win | 37.2% | 36.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 31.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Botev Vratsa win | 32.9% | 32.5% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 40.5% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 21.7% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 48.2% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 52.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 17.4% | 28.2% | -10.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Septemvri Sofia 41.8 / Botev Vratsa 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.