Arda vs Botev Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-04 · 20:15 CET
WWLLD
LLWWWThe score model made an Arda win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arda 1.46 – 0.96 Botev Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda win | 48.5% | 44.0% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Botev Plovdiv win | 24.5% | 26.1% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 43.6% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 23.8% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 49.9% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 30.0% | +1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arda 44.6 / Botev Plovdiv 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.