Arda vs Lok. Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-17 · 20:15 CET
WWLLD
DLDLWThe score model made an Arda win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arda 1.75 – 0.92 Lok. Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda win | 56.7% | 53.2% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Lok. Sofia win | 19.1% | 20.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 48.4% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 28.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 50.5% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 32.9% | +6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arda 43.2 / Lok. Sofia 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.