Arda vs Lok. Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-17 · 20:15 CET
WDWLW
LDLDLThe score model makes a Arda win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 39.1% vs 32.9% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arda 1.75 – 0.93 Lok. Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arda win | 56.4% | 51.9% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.7% | -2.4% |
| Lok. Sofia win | 19.3% | 21.4% | -2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 48.3% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 28.1% | +0.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 50.5% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 32.9% | +6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arda 43.4 / Lok. Sofia 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.