Nautico vs Operario-PR
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-17 · 00:30 CET
WDLLD
DLLLLThe score model made a Nautico win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.45 – 1.07 Operario-PR.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 45.8% | 51.1% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Operario-PR win | 28.0% | 21.3% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 46.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 26.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 50.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 31.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nautico 24.5 / Operario-PR 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nautico vs Operario-PR in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.