CRB vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-16 · 02:00 CET
WLWDL
LWWDLThe score model made a CRB win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CRB 1.38 – 1.22 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB win | 40.6% | 50.0% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.3% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Sport Recife win | 33.1% | 23.8% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 56.8% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 36.3% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 59.4% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 38.5% | -3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CRB 55.1 / Sport Recife 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CRB vs Sport Recife in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.