Avai vs Vila Nova FC
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-15 · 02:30 CET
LLWWD
WWDWDThe score model made an Avai win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avai 1.30 – 1.04 Vila Nova FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avai win | 42.4% | 35.5% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 31.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Vila Nova FC win | 29.8% | 33.4% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 37.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 19.4% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 45.5% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 27.3% | +3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Avai 54.6 / Vila Nova FC 55.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Avai vs Vila Nova FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.