Juventude vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-13 · 23:00 CET
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DLLDDThe score model made a Juventude win the most likely outcome at 58%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventude 1.42 – 0.57 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 58.1% | 55.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Athletic Club win | 14.9% | 17.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.0% | 39.7% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.1% | 20.9% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 32.8% | 41.6% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 28.3% | -8.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventude 27.4 / Athletic Club 40.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Juventude vs Athletic Club in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.