Fortaleza vs Ceara
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-13 · 23:30 CET
DDWDW
DWWLDThe score model made a Fortaleza win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.42 – 0.70 Ceara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza win | 54.6% | 48.8% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.3% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Ceara win | 18.4% | 21.9% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 39.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 20.2% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.0% | 44.8% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 27.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fortaleza 23.1 / Ceara 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fortaleza vs Ceara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.