Atletico GO vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
WWLDD
WWLWWThe score model made an Atletico GO win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico GO 1.00 – 0.84 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico GO win | 38.4% | 44.0% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.1% | 30.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Criciuma win | 29.5% | 25.5% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.9% | 40.6% | -12.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.5% | 21.5% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 35.7% | 47.0% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 28.1% | -5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico GO 45.1 / Criciuma 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Atletico GO vs Criciuma in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.