Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-11 · 02:30 CET
LWWDL
LLLLDThe score model made a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 78%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 2.42 – 0.57 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 78.4% | 84.6% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.6% | 10.4% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Ponte Preta win | 7.0% | 5.1% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 71.4% | -13.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 50.4% | -15.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 43.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 48.9% | -11.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 36.2 / Ponte Preta 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.