Sao Bernardo vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-12 · 00:30 CET
WDWLD
LLLLDThe score model made a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.93 – 0.95 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 60.3% | 56.4% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 25.5% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Londrina win | 18.1% | 18.1% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 45.7% | +9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 25.5% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 46.6% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 31.3% | +4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 22.1 / Londrina 27.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.