Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-11 · 00:30 CET
DWLWW
LDWWWThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 0.89 – 1.30 Novorizontino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP win | 25.8% | 27.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 29.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Novorizontino win | 46.0% | 42.7% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% | 42.7% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.9% | 23.2% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 49.3% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.9% | 29.5% | -7.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo SP 54.1 / Novorizontino 54.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.