America MG vs Nautico
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-11 · 01:30 CET
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LWDLLThe score model made an America MG win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: America MG 1.17 – 1.14 Nautico.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America MG win | 36.8% | 31.6% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Nautico win | 35.2% | 39.7% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 50.9% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 30.5% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 56.4% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 34.3% | -8.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: America MG 49.9 / Nautico 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.