Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-06 · 23:30 CET
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WDWLDThe score model made a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.93 – 1.71 Sao Bernardo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta win | 20.4% | 10.7% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 20.0% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Sao Bernardo win | 55.9% | 69.3% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 55.2% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 33.8% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 45.4% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 37.8% | -5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ponte Preta 35.5 / Sao Bernardo 21.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.