Novorizontino vs Avai

Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET

DLDWW

3 : 1

full-time · HT 3:1

xG 1.53 – 0.73 · H 1.46 · X 4.00 · A 7.10

DLLLW

The score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.

Scoreline probabilities

1:014.8%

2:011.4%

1:111.3%

0:010.1%

2:18.3%

0:16.7%

Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.

First goal · head-to-head

0–1515–3030–4545–6060–7575–90

Novorizontino (30)Avai (30)

2026-09-05 · Novorizontino – Avai3:1

2026-05-04 · Avai – Novorizontino3:3

2025-08-03 · Novorizontino – Avai1:1

Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)

One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.53 – 0.73 Avai.

Market	Data %	Implied	Divergence	Result
Novorizontino win	56.5%	63.7%	-7.2%	✓
Draw	25.7%	23.2%	+2.4%	✗
Avai win	17.9%	13.1%	+4.8%	✗
Over 1.5 goals	66.1%	—	—	✓
Over 2.5 goals	39.6%	47.7%	-8.2%	✓
Over 3.5 goals	19.4%	27.0%	-7.5%	✓
Both teams to score	40.8%	44.1%	-3.4%	✓
HT over 0.5 goals	59.2%	—	—	✓
HT over 1.5 goals	24.5%	32.6%	-8.1%	✓

Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 53.2 / Avai 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.

Averaged bookmaker prices: home 1.46, draw 4.00, away 7.10; Over 2.5 1.97, Under 2.5 1.80; HT Over 1.5 2.85, HT Under 1.5 1.38.

How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.