Goias vs Fortaleza
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
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DWDDWThe score model made a Goias win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goias 1.03 – 0.90 Fortaleza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 37.9% | 35.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 32.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Fortaleza win | 30.8% | 32.1% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.5% | 38.2% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.1% | 19.6% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.1% | 46.1% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 27.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goias 48.1 / Fortaleza 21.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.