Criciuma vs Cuiaba
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-06 · 00:30 CET
LLWWL
DWLWDThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.12 – 0.65 Cuiaba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 46.7% | 48.7% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.8% | 30.9% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Cuiaba win | 21.5% | 20.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.3% | 33.7% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.5% | 16.3% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 32.3% | 39.8% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 24.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 44.4 / Cuiaba 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.