CRB vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 02:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a CRB win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CRB 1.75 – 0.89 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB win | 57.6% | 62.9% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 22.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| America MG win | 19.1% | 15.1% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 56.9% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 36.0% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 53.1% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 38.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CRB 53.3 / America MG 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.