Ceara vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 23:30 CET
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LWLWWThe score model made a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.16 – 1.26 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 33.9% | 39.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 31.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Sport Recife win | 38.7% | 29.0% | +9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 40.3% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 21.3% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 47.3% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 28.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 34.7 / Sport Recife 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.